Geostrategic challenges in the oil and gas sectors

Abstract

This chapter identifies the major geostrategic challenges that have emerged during the last two decades and assesses their implications for the global oil and gas sectors. The historical development of oil prices shows that there have been two major periods of volatility, 1973-1986 and 1998-present, each of which was preceded by two relatively stable periods. The two oil price shocks of the 1970s that were triggered by geopolitical events had long-term effects on global politics and economics. Major oil and gas producers faced the challenges of declining consumption on the demand side, as consumers turned to alternative energies, energy efficiency improved, and non-Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil supplies increased. The crisis in the 2000s, on the other hand, had similar but more intense consequences, deeply altering the structure of oil and gas markets. We identify two major challenges facing the oil and gas industry: energy substitution and resource scarcity. While the substitution of coal and renewables threatens to reduce oil and gas demand, resource scarcity is expected to promote the development of unconventional hydrocarbon resources such as shale oil and gas and heavy oil. Unlike in the 1970s, oil consumption did not decline when oil prices peaked in the 2000s. Moreover, the recent fall in oil and gas prices created a fiscal challenge for conventional producers, such as OPEC countries, and non-OPEC countries like Russia and Mexico, whose governmental budgets depend on export revenues. These fiscal challenges are expected to increase competition between national oil companies (NOCs) and international oil companies (IOCs), necessitating structural change in the governance of the industry. The NOCs are expected to continue dominating the industry and due to the increasing intervention of the corresponding governments, the next decades could experience a rise in state capitalism not only in major oil and gas producing countries but also in the global energy business.