Contingent versus routine third-trimester screening for late fetal growth restriction

Abstract

Objective To evaluate the use of third-trimester ultrasound screening for late fetal growth restriction (FGR) on a contingent basis, according to risk accrued in the second trimester, in an unselected population. Methods Maternal characteristics, fetal biometry and second-trimester uterine artery (UtA) Doppler were included in logistic regression analysis to estimate risk for late FGR (birth weight < 3rd percentile, or 3rd-10th percentile plus abnormal cerebroplacental ratio or UtA Doppler, with delivery ≥ 34 weeks). Based on the second-trimester risk, strategies for performing contingent third-trimester ultrasound examinations in 10%, 25% or 50% of the cohort were tested against a strategy of routine ultrasound scanning in the entire population at 32 + 0 to 33 + 6 weeks. Results Models were constructed based on 1393 patients and validated in 1303 patients, including 73 (5.2%) and 82 late FGR (6.3%) cases, respectively. At the second-trimester scan, the a-posteriori second-trimester risk (a-posteriori first-trimester risk (baseline a-priori risk and mean arterial blood pressure) combined with second-trimester abdominal circumference and UtA Doppler) yielded an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC) of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.74-0.87) (detection rate (DR), 43.1% for a 10% false-positive rate (FPR)). The combination of a-posteriori second-trimester risk plus third-trimester estimated fetal weight (full model) yielded an AUC of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.88-0.96) (DR, 74% for a 10% FPR). Subjecting 10%, 25% or 50% of the study population to third-trimester ultrasound, based on a-posteriori second-trimester risk, gave AUCs of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.75-0.88), 0.84 (95% CI, 0.78-0.91) and 0.89 (95% CI, 0.84-0.94), respectively. Only the 50% contingent model proved statistically equivalent to performing routine third-trimester ultrasound scans (AUC, 0.92 (95% CI, 0.88-0.96), P = 0.11). Conclusion A strategy of selecting 50% of the study population to undergo third-trimester ultrasound examination, based on accrued risk in the second trimester, proved equivalent to routine third-trimester ultrasound scanning in predicting late FGR.