The variable and chaotic nature of professional golf performance

Abstract

In golf, unlike most other sports, individual performance is not the result of direct interactions between players. Instead decision-making and performance is influenced by numerous constraining factors affecting each shot. This study looked at the performance of PGA TOUR golfers in 2011 in terms of stability and variability on a shot-by-shot basis. Stability and variability were assessed using Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) and standard deviation, respectively. About 10% of all shots comprised short stable phases of performance (3.7 ± 1.1 shots per stable phase). Stable phases tended to consist of shots of typical performance, rather than poor or exceptional shots; this finding was consistent for all shot categories. Overall, stability measures were not correlated with tournament performance. Variability across all shots was not related to tournament performance; however, variability in tee shots and short approach shots was higher than for other shot categories. Furthermore, tee shot variability was related to tournament standing: decreased variability was associated with better tournament ranking. The findings in this study showed that PGA TOUR golf performance is chaotic. Further research on amateur golf performance is required to determine whether the structure of amateur golf performance is universal.