Spatiotemporal variability of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis based on sociodemographic heterogeneity. The case of northeastern Iran, 2011–2016

Abstract

Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) is one of the most prevalent zoonoses in Iran, especially in central and northeastern Iran. This research aimed to examine whether there were spatiotemporal clusters of ZCL cases, and if so, whether there were differences in clustering according to age, sex, area of residence, and occupation. Spatial analysis, including global and local spatial autocorrelations, inverse distance weighting, and space-time scan statistics, were used to determine potential clusters in the villages of Golestan from 2011–2016. Several spatially significant (p < 0.05) clusters were observed in the north and northeastern regions, and most persisted until the last year of the study period. Children (0–10 years) living in rural settings were more likely to have an infection than those living in other areas. Although the disease was centered in the northern regions, housekeepers, females, and patients aged 21–30 and 41–50 years were found to be the high-risk groups in the southern areas. The seasonal pattern indicated that the outbreak mainly began in late summer, peaked in October, and diminished in December. By exploring spatiotemporal variations of ZCL by sociodemographic information, this study was able to identify priority areas for decision-makers in healthcare and resource allocation.