Technology Roadmapping Based on Key Performance Indicators

Abstract

In this paper a new technology roadmapping method, based on the stochastic simulation of key performance indicators, is presented. Initially the specific challenges and the system model associated with the introduction of an innovative electric bus systems are worked out. The future behavior of this complex technological system is forecasted based on a Monte Carlo simulation method with stochastic input to take uncertainties into account and a deterministic model which is derived from the structure of the technological system. Stochastic outputs are obtained for technology readiness, economic feasibility and environmental sustainability. The data are evaluated with a technology information management system to generate technology roadmaps and to support decision making on development strategy and planning of time to market. The method is exemplary illustrated for an urban electric bus system with a special focus on the technology readiness level as a performance indicator.