An enhanced model of the contemporary and long-term (200 ka) sublimation of the massive subsurface ice in Beacon Valley, Antarctica

Abstract

A massive ice body buried under several decimeters of dry regolith in Beacon Valley, Antarctica, is believed to be more than 1 Ma old and perhaps over 8.1 Ma; however, vapor diffusion models suggest that subsurface ice in this region is not stable under current climate conditions. To better understand the controls on sublimation rates and stability of this massive ice, we have modeled vapor diffusion using 12 years of climate and soil temperature data from 1999 to 2011, including field measurements of episodic snow cover and snowmelt events that have not been represented in previous models of ground ice sublimation. The model is then extended to reconstruct the sublimation history over the last 200 ka using paleotemperatures estimated from ice core data from nearby Taylor Dome and a relationship between atmospheric temperature and humidity derived from our meteorological records. The model quantifies the impact of episodic snow events; they account for a nearly 30% reduction in the massive ice loss. The sublimation rate of ground ice averages 0.11 mm a-1 between 1999 and 2011 in Beacon Valley. Parameterized with past environmental conditions and assuming the same regolith thickness, the modeled sublimation rate of ground ice in Beacon Valley averages 0.09 mm a-1 for the last 200 ka, comparable to the long-term average rate estimated independently from various studies based on cosmogenic isotopes. This study provides a realistic estimate of the long-term sublimation history and supports the inference that the buried ice in Beacon Valley is older than 1 Ma.