Evaluation of Backpropagation Neural Network Models for Early Prediction of Student’s Graduation in XYZ University

Abstract

The study period of the student in a tertiary institution is undoubtedly essential in implementing the objectives of the tertiary institution, particularly for the implementation of the study program, so that its outcomes will affect accreditation. Prediction of students' study period can be a reference for higher education institutions in making policies for the future. Based on XYZ University data, especially in the informatics study program, many students have the different generation and concentration therein. In the implementation of students in studying, several factors, including the value of the Grade Point Average (GPA), can affect the study period taken. Likewise, the institutions often do not understand the conditions or predictive value of students' study period on campus. The application of neural networks in predicting the students’ study period at the XYZ University uses a network model with GPA values as input and 1 layer of hidden layers with 10, 50 and 100 neurons; learning rate values used are 0.01, 0.1 and 0.3 and 1 output target for the study period. Prediction results obtained the best results on the neuron network pattern 50 with 0.01 as a learning rate, which detail of MSE value, the training is 0,017516 and the testing is 0,047721, with an accuracy value of 77%.