Populist attitudes, fiscal illusion and fiscal preferences: evidence from Dutch households

Abstract

It is well documented that the public is often poorly informed about the economy. In the domain of fiscal policy, this may make voters susceptible to favour spending, while underestimating its costs (fiscal illusion). While politicians may have more information to judge the need for prudent economic policies, voters may be less inclined to support prudent fiscal policy if they do not believe that these politicians act in their best interest—an idea that in recent decades has become more prevalent. Using a novel dataset from the Netherlands, this paper examines whether strong populist ideas lead to more expansionary fiscal preferences, thereby reinforcing the risk of fiscal illusion. The findings indicate that respondents' populist attitudes significantly predict their fiscal preferences. Additionally, higher literacy and information provision contribute to more prudent fiscal preferences. However, the impact of literacy is conditioned by the level of populist sentiment. Poorly literate respondents show higher support for tax relief only when holding strong populist attitudes, not when expressing lower levels of populist sentiment.