The application of a compound model for predicting reliability indices of engineering systems

Abstract

The article considers sophisticated formats of the multivariate integration of time-dependent technical reliability prediction for ductile series and parallel engineering systems as a structure embracing stochastically dependent components. The paper recommends the rational avoidance of complicated multidimensional integrals and the separation of dynamic (time-dependent) probabilistic models of auto-systems from the static models of general engineering systems. For assessing survival probabilities of auto-systems affected by random demands n and general systems comprised of correlated auto-systems m, the concept of the method for transformed conditional probabilities (TCP) and conventional correlation vectors (CCV) have been used. The article also discusses target reliability indices of engineering systems. The analysis of reliability indices to series and parallel engineering systems is demonstrated applying the numerical examples.