The climatology of blocking in a numerical forecast model

Abstract

An objective criterion for identifying blocking events is applied to a ten-year climate run of the National Meteorological Center's Medium-Range Forecast Model (MRF) and to observations. The climatology of blocking in the ten-year run is found to be somewhat realistic in the Northern Hemisphere, although when averaged over all longitudes and seasons a general lack of blocking is found. The ten-year model run is able to produce realistic numbers of blocks for selected geographical regions and seasons. In these regions, blocks are found to persist longer than observed blocking events. The ten-year run of the model is also able to reproduce the average longitudinal extent and motion of the observed blocks. These results suggest that the MRF is able to generate and persist realistic blocks, but only at longitudes and seasons for which the underlying model climate is conducive. -from Author