EFFECTS of CLIMATE CHANGE on RICE YIELD and RICE MARKET in Vietnam

Abstract

We evaluate the effects of climate change on Vietnam's rice market. Results suggest that under a low-emission scenario and without interventions, rice production would drop by as much as 18% by 2030 relative to the 1980-1999 average. Farm and wholesale prices would increase by 1.86%, causing domestic demand to fall by 0.38%. The export sector would experience a rise of 6.94% in export free-on-board prices and a drop of 55.36% in export quantities. Farmers would experience a sales loss of 16.02%, whereas wholesalers would see a sales gain of 1.48%. For exporters, their sales loss would amount to 48.42%.