Sir-si mathematical model for zika virus progression dynamics in india: A case study

Abstract

Viral diseases are very hazardous for humanity because in the case of most viral diseases, drugs are not effective. At present, the whole world is living with the fear of COVID-19. From time to time, several viral diseases have been troubling human life. In this article, we have tried to capture the progression dynamics of Zika Virus (ZIKV) infection in the Indian scenario. A constructed model is based on compartment modelling. In the model, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) structure is used for the human population and Susceptible-Infected (SI) structure is used for mosquito population. The value of the basic reproduction number (R0) is computed 0.36 at baseline values of parameters involved in the model. The lower value of R0 suggests that infection was unable to spread in the human population. Sensitive analysis for R0 revealed that the most accountable parameter in the spread of infection was mosquito biting rate. The modelling technique might be useful for other diseases also.