Minimizing pest and disease risks in uncertain climates: CABI initiatives developing new technologies and tools for outreaching early warning to farmers.

Abstract

Recent climate models have projected a global temperature increase of at least 1.5-2°C on present day temperatures, including a high likelihood of an increase in extreme temperatures experienced in inhabited places. Changes to observed precipitation patterns are likely with several regions predicted to experience an increase in heavy precipitation and others likely to experience more drought, and a precipitation deficit. There is a growing body of evidence to suggest these changing climatic conditions affect the distribution and phenology of pests and diseases of agriculture. As ectothermic organisms, arthropod pests and fungal diseases are sensitive to changes in mean temperatures and temperature ranges to which they are exposed, with warmer average conditions likely to increase development rates and more extreme temperatures likely to have a negative impact on development. Models which incorporate climate change projections indicate that pests and diseases may shift or increase their ranges in line with warming temperatures. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, with farmers reporting negative impacts on crop production and needing to change farming practices in response to changing climates. In the face of changeable conditions, traditional pest management practices may not be as effective given the climate change induced changes which may be present in the ecosystems e.g. alteration of tritrophic interactions between pest and natural enemies. This paper gives an overview of current and recent projects where CABI and partners have developed and utilised existing technologies, methodologies and approaches that may help smallholder farmers to receive the necessary information to control pests and diseases in the context of changing climates. First, we cover the application of species distribution models and their benefits in highlighting areas at risk of pest incursion in the future. Second, we cover within season modelling approaches, driven by earth observation data sources to help farmers to make informed decisions on the best time to apply an intervention, in the face of changing within season temperatures. Finally, we report on CABI's activities associated with climate smart agriculture in South East Asia.