Modeling the potential suitable habitat of Impatiens hainanensis, a limestone-endemic plant

Abstract

Aims Modelling potential distribution ranges of threatened species is of great significance for their conservation. In this paper, the distribution of potential suitable habitat of Impatiens hainanensis, a limestone-endemic and endangered plant in Hainan Island, was studied to provide scientific basis for their effective in situ conservation and re-introduction of I. hainanensis. Methods Based on eight occurrence sites and 12 environmental variables, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm and GIS technology were used to create a model linking the distribution ranges of I. hainanensis with environments. With data on five actual distribution sites and five non-occurrence sites, four model evaluation metrics (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), kappa coefficient, true skill statistic (TSS), overall accuracy) were used to evaluate the predictive performance and accuracy of this model. Important findings The results indicated that the indicative value of all four evaluation metrics were above 0.9, indicating that the MaxEnt model can effectively predict the potential suitable habitats of I. hainanensis. Slope, precipitation of the driest quarter and coefficients of precipitation variation were the three main environmental factors influencing the distribution of I. hainanensis. At present, the most suitable habitat includes western and southern parts of Baisha County, the central and southern parts of Changjiang County, the eastern part of the Dongfang City and northeastern Ledong County, accounting for 1.8% of land area on Hainan Island. Since the potential suitable habitat of I. hainanensis is rare and severely fragmented, the protection of this species is urgent. We suggest to collect the seeds of various geographic populations of I. hainanensis to establish a germplasm resource bank. The most suitable habitat of the species, including Tian’an Village and Jiangbian Village in Dongfang City, northeast of Ledong County (Jiaxi Reserve), should be selected as the priority places for future extensive field surveys and re-introduction.