High Resolution WRF Modelling of Extreme Heat Events and Mapping of the Urban Heat Island Characteristics in Athens, Greece

Abstract

In recent decades, large-scale urbanisation has developed rapidly, resulting in significant changes in the local and regional environment and climate. Large metropolitan areas worldwide induce significant changes in local atmospheric circulation and boundary layer meteorology by modifying the underlying surface characteristics and through the emission of anthropogenic heat and pollutants into the atmosphere. We investigate the urban heat island (UHI) characteristics in the city of Athens, Greece, which is one of Europe’s largest metropolitan complexes with a population of approximately 3.7 million inhabitants. The UHI effect is intense due to the city’s size, dense construction, high incident solar radiation, and almost complete lack of natural vegetation, with previous studies suggesting a temperature rise of 4 °C on average in the city centre compared to summer background conditions. We used high-resolution WRF simulations (1-km horizontal grid) driven with ERA5 reanalysis data to produce surface temperature maps in the city of Athens and the surrounding areas (Region of Attiki) during the summer period of 1 July–20 August 2021. Different model parameterizations were tested, both with respect to urban characteristics and physical parameters. The daily minimum and maximum temperatures (Tmin and Tmax) derived from the model were validated against observational data from a dense network of weather stations covering metropolitan Athens and surrounding locations. We further investigate the influence of different meteorological conditions on the UHI gradients as produced by the model and the observational dataset, including the extreme heat wave of 28 July–5 August 2021, during which persistent maximum temperatures of >40 °C were recorded for nine consecutive days. The results indicate a strong correlation between WRF output and recorded minimum and maximum temperatures throughout the test period (R ranges from 0.80 to 0.93), with an average mean absolute bias (MAB) of 1.5 °C, and reveal the intensity and spatiotemporal variability of the UHI phenomenon in the city of Athens, with UHI magnitude reaching 8–9 °C at times. Our work aims to maximise the potential of using high-resolution WRF modelling for simulating extreme heat events and mapping the UHI effect in large metropolitan complexes.