International trade and Ukraine's pursuit of self-determination

Abstract

In this research, we assess the international trade implications of Ukraine's pursuit of self-determination through the lens of the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement and the contemporaneous war with Russia in the years preceding the 2022 Russian Invasion. To do so, we construct a dataset with annual, bilateral export and import flows for Ukraine and a set of comparator countries at the 6-digit level of the Harmonised Tariff Schedule (HS) for years 2000–2019. Using this data, we nest a difference-in-difference design within a series of econometric gravity models to estimate the effects on the sectoral and geographic composition of Ukrainian trade. Our results indicate a major re-direction of exports towards the EU and away from Russia. Trade outcomes are one of many considerations that led to Ukraine's pursuit of EU integration.