Macroeconomic Effects of Inflationary Shocks with Durable and Non-Durable Consumption

Abstract

In this paper we show that inflation, both in the short and long run, negatively affects durable and non-durable consumption and output, and positively influences the current account balance. In particular, the impact of inflation is more pronounced on durable relative to non-durable goods. Using quarterly data from Canada, the UK and the USA, we demonstrate that these findings are consistent and robust across different econometric specifications. An open economy model with durable and non-durable consumption, households with labor/leisure choice and money introduced through cash-in-advance (CIA) constraint on consumption expenditure alone could meaningfully explain these empirical observations. Our empirical findings of non-neutral and negative effects of inflation on real growth are significant for many economic models in the asset pricing literature that support a negative co-movement of stock prices and expected inflation. Moreover, such positive inflation premium in our model could provide economic explanation for a positive slope of the nominal term structure in the data.