Mobility Scenarios for the Year 2030: Implications for Individual Electric Mobility

Abstract

As other mobility innovations individual electric mobility will presumably have a significant market share only in decades from now. Scenario planning technique provides a framework for exploring the mobility market of the future with a long term perspective. Against this background the chapter at hand has a twofold objective: (a) It promotes scenario planning as an alternative approach to explore the distant future of mobility to establish market conditions. (b) The chapter presents results from a scenario planning study for Germany as an example. Three scenarios for the future of mobility emerged from an elaborate scenario planning process: (1) Matured Progress, (2) Global Take-Off, (3) Frantic Standstill. In all three scenarios, the German population ages significantly, concentrates in urban areas and is increasingly aware of environmental issues with consequences for consumer choice. The scenarios differ specifically regarding immigration to Germany, the global and national economies, and the farsightedness of political decision making. Conforming to expectation, these heterogeneous external developments lead to different projections for future travel. Hence, the presented study can assist in identifying future developments that are very likely while others are subject to specific conditional processes. This helps explore the future market for electric mobility among other mobility innovations.