Calibration of Numerical Model for Shoreline Change Prediction Using Satellite Imagery Data

Abstract

This paper presents a method for calibration of numerical model for shoreline change prediction using satellite imagery data in muddy beach. Tanjung Motong beach, a muddy beach that is suffered high abrasion in Rangsang Island, Riau province, Indonesia was picked as study area. The primary numerical modeling tool used in this research was GENESIS (GENEralized Model for Simulating Shoreline change), which has been successfully applied in many case studies of shoreline change phenomena on a sandy beach.The model was calibrated using two extracted coastlines satellite imagery data, such as Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-8 OLI/TIRS. The extracted coastline data were analyzed by using DSAS (Digital Shoreline Analysis System) tool to get the rate of shoreline change from 1990 to 2014. The main purpose of the calibration process was to find out the appropriate value for K 1 and K coefficients so that the predicted shoreline change had an acceptable correlation with the output of the satellite data processing. The result of this research showed that the shoreline change prediction had a good correlation with the historical evidence data in Tanjung Motong coast. It means that the GENESIS tool is not only applicable for shoreline prediction in sandy beach but also in muddy beach.