A comparison of probabilistic models of deterioration for life cycle management of structures

Abstract

The probabilistic modelling of deterioration in the time-dependent reliability analysis is a necessary step for developing a risk-based approach to the life cycle management of infrastructure systems. The decisions regarding the time and frequency of inspection, maintenance and replacement are confounded by sampling and temporal uncertainties associated with the deterioration of structural resistance. To account for these uncertainties, probabilistic models of deterioration have been developed under two broad categories, namely the random variable model and stochastic process model. The paper presents a conceptual exposition of these two models and highlights their profound implications to the age-based and condition-based preventive maintenances policies. The proposed stochastic gamma process model of deterioration is more versatile than the random rate model commonly used in the structural reliability literature. © 2006 Springer.