Five Grand Challenges in Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics

Abstract

This paper identifies five grand challenges in the multidisciplinary field of pedestrian and evacuation dynamics (PED). In order to maximize the effec- tiveness of limited resources, the PED community would benefit greatly from a prioritized, consensus-based research agenda. The five proposed research initia- tives include (1) a general human behavior model with a theoretical foundation and numerical validity, (2) a database archiving actual building emergency evacu- ations, (3) methods to embrace the stochastic nature of inputs and outcomes in building evacuation, (4) a validated method to integrate distributions of egress cal- culations with fire hazard calculations, and (5) adoption of technology for people movement, data collection, and within modeling constructs. The list proffered in this paper may reflect the building evacuation perspective of the author and is in- tended merely as a spark for discussion amongst the greater PED community; a true consensus research agenda requires deliberation by leaders in the community.