The impact of the 2020 crisis on the Mexican economy: an input-output approach with inoperability

Abstract

The article presents two input-out models with inoperability that analyze the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic in Mexico. Both use methodological developments in which contributions were made in their specification. The first, a static model, generates a vulnerability index of the economic branches, establishing their priority for attention with economic policy instruments. The second, a dynamic model, estimates possible trajectories of economic recovery of the sectors, their possible duration, and their resilience capacities in the face of persistent phenomena of the pandemic. The models are adjusted to the short-term indicators produced by the INEGI, reflecting a heterogeneous behavior between the sectors; some have a medium-term tendency not to return to their normal productive capacity.