Impacts of climate changes on the maximum and minimum temperature in Iran

Abstract

In this paper, trends of minimum and maximum temperatures in Iran were studied using time series of daily minimum and maximum temperatures of 45 meteorological stations from 1976 to 2005 (as the baseline period). Mann-Kendall test, for maximum and minimum temperature, was obtained 1.85 and 3.56, respectively, which was positive and significant. The slope of the trend line for maximum and minimum temperature was obtained 0.23 and 0.39 °C decade−1, respectively. In this study, the trend of extreme temperature indicators was also evaluated. According to the obtained results, in annual terms, TX10, FDO, TN10, and IDO indices have had a negative trend at most stations, but TX90, TR20, TNx, TNx, TXn, TN90, SDI, and SU25 indices showed a positive trend. In the seasonal scale, the indices of cold days (TX10) and cold nights (TN10) showed significant negative trends in most seasons. Warm days (TX90) and warm nights (TN90) showed significant positive trends at most stations. The results of future simulations using several general circulation models in different time periods showed that the highest increase in maximum and minimum temperature related to the RCP8.5 scenario in periods of 2071 to 2099. The results also showed that northwest of Iran would have the highest temperature rise. The results also showed that the probability density function of the minimum and maximum temperatures will shift to warmer temperatures. This could be an indication of climate change in the future decades in Iran.