Decadal Prediction of Marine Heatwaves in MPI-ESM

Abstract

Marine Heatwaves (MHW) are SST extremes that can have devastating impacts on marine ecosystems and can influence circulation patterns in the ocean and the atmosphere. Here, we present a first attempt to study the decadal predictability of MHW in an ensemble of decadal hindcasts based on the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. For the global mean we find significant skill for the multiyear MHW trends but we cannot predict the interannual to decadal variability of MHW. In the Subpolar North Atlantic, we can predict the interannual to decadal variability of MHW days and frequency up to lead year 8. We demonstrate that in the Subpolar North Atlantic, any increase in SST is accompanied by more MHW and vice versa. Thereby we gain additional information about the decadal evolution of SST that go beyond predicting the yearly mean SST.