Empirical Bayes estimation for Markov chain models of drought events in Peninsular Malaysia

Abstract

This study employs empirical Bayes method to estimate the transition probability matrix of Markov chain. The transition probability is used to determine drought characteristics for 35 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia. The result reveals that non-drought condition is more persistent than the other drought conditions. The result also shows that the middle area of Peninsular Malaysia experiences longer non-drought condition with higher probability compared to other regions. Meanwhile, western area experiences moderate drought condition, more frequent with shorter duration. © 2014 AIP Publishing LLC.