Fresh Pork as Protein Source in the USDA Thrifty Food Plan 2021: A Modeling Analysis of Lowest-Cost Healthy Diets

Abstract

The USDA Thrifty Food Plan (TFP) is an estimate of a lowest-cost healthy diet that meets dietary guidelines while respecting existing eating habits. In the US, the TFP provides the basis for federal food assistance. Included in the TFP are protein foods from both animal and plant sources. The present goal was to explore the place of fresh pork among protein foods in the revised TFP 2021. Our analyses used the same databases and the same quadratic programming (QP) methods as had been used by the USDA to develop the TFP 2021. Dietary intakes came from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2015-16); nutrient composition data came from the Food and Nutrient Database for Dietary Studies (FNDDS 2015-16), and national food prices came from the 2021 TFP report. Amounts and prices were for foods as consumed. Our QP Model 1 used USDA modeling categories to replicate the TFP 2021. The non-poultry meat category was then separated into pork and beef. Model 2 examined whether the TFP 2021 algorithm would select pork or beef. Model 3 sought the lowest cost healthy diet, the same as the TFP 2021. Model 4 replaced beef and poultry with pork; whereas Model 5 replaced pork and poultry with beef. Weekly costs were calculated for a family of four and eight age-gender groups. All models met the nutrient requirements. The market basket cost for a family of four in Model 1 was USD 189.88, compared to the purchase price of USD 192.84 in the TFP 2021. In Model 2, fresh pork was selected preferentially over beef. The lowest-cost healthy food plan in Model 3 increased fresh pork to 3.4 lbs/week. Replacing beef and poultry with pork in Model 4 led to a modest decrease in the weekly cost. Replacing pork and poultry with beef in Model 5 led to a major increase in the weekly cost. We conclude, based on TFP-analogous modeling, that fresh pork is the preferred meat source, providing high-quality protein at a low cost. QP methods, as used in the TFP 2021, are a valuable tool for designing food plans that are affordable, acceptable, and nutrient-rich.