Does public spending affect unemployment in an emerging market?

Abstract

The Nigerian economy in the last two decades up until 2013 has been growing at an average of 6% and yet unemployment was equally growing in the region of 20% within the same period. This paradoxical situation has led to a flurry of studies and postulations aimed at providing explanation and solution to the phenomenon. This study making use of a regression model with annual data from 1980 to 2013, empirically determined the impact of public sector expenditures (CEXP and REXP) together with private sector investment (PINV) on unemployment (UNEMP) in Nigeria. Capital expenditure and private sector investment both in the medium to long-run were found to serve as catalyst towards reduction of unemployment, while recurrent expenditure was not statistically strong enough to do same. The R-2 (0.84) showed that greater proportion of the total variations in UNEMP was brought about by variations in the regressors. Further tests like autocorrelation, hetroscedasticity, specification error, and multicollinearity indicated respectively that there is no presence of autocorrelation hence the model produced a parsimonious result; the variance is constant over time; the link test confirmed by Ramsey reset test suggested there was no specification error; and lastly the variance inflation factor (VIF) of the variables implies that there is no evidence of multicollinearity. The study recommends, inter alia, that the proportion of capital expenditure in Nigerian budget profile should be systematically increased while the recurrent expenditure should be reduced; and there is need to stimulate competition among investors through removal of structural and institutional rigidities and government should design clear policy incentives to private sector investment.