On surface temperature, greenhouse gases, and aerosols: models and observations

Abstract

The effects of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and sulphate aerosols on near-surface temperature is investigated using a version of the Hadley Centre atmospheric model coupled to a mixed layer ocean. The scattering of sunlight by sulphate aerosols is represented by appropriately enhancing the surface albedo. An integration with a 39% increase in CO2, giving the estimated change in radiative heating due to increases in greenhouse gases since 1900, produced an equilibrium warming of 2.3 K, which, even allowing for oceanic inertia, is significantly higher than the observed warming over the same period. Furthermore, the simulation suggests a substantial warming everywhere, whereas the observations indicate isolated regions of cooling, including parts of the northern midlatitude continents. -from Authors