Polls and Elections Trump, Twitter, and Public Dissuasion: A Natural Experiment in Presidential Rhetoric

Abstract

Research suggests that the ability of the president to influence public attention to issues and shape public opinion is limited. Recently, presidential efforts at persuasion have expanded to social media, but presidential persuasion has yet to be explored in this medium. We address two relevant questions. First, what effects does a presidential tweet have on public interest in the issue discussed in the tweet? Second, what effect does a presidential tweet have on public attitudes about that issue? To answer these questions, we utilize a natural experiment that occurred while we were fielding a nationally representative survey of American adults. Our analysis provides considerable evidence that presidential tweets can have the unintended consequence of driving the public away from the president’s position on an issue.