Modeling decision-making outcomes in political elite networks

Abstract

A methodology for modeling group decision making by political elites is described and its application to real-world contexts is illustrated for the case of Afghanistan. The methodology relies on the judgments of multiple experts as input and can improve analysis of political decision making by elucidating the factional structure of the group of elites and simulating their interaction in a policy debate. This simulation is performed using a model of small group decision making which integrates actor policy preferences and their inter-relationship network within a nonlinear dynamical systems theory framework. In addition to the basic nonlinear model, various components required to implement the methodology are described such as the analyst survey, structural analysis, and simulation. Implementation and analysis results are discussed for both the government and insurgent sides of the current conflict in Afghanistan.