The impacts of paddy field conversion and climate change on rice production in Tegal Regency, Indonesia

Abstract

Land conversion is one of the problems in agriculture because it decreases the number of productive lands. This condition is exacerbated by climate change phenomenon. This research aimed to identify the climate change impact on paddy field area conversion and rice production in Tegal Regency, Indonesia. The research was conducted by interpreting and classifying satellite image data as well as analyzing land area changes and rice production. Support Vector Machine (SVM) was used as the supervised classification method followed by correlation tests. The results indicated paddy field area decreased in 2009-2015, from 39,365.3 to 36,629 ha. While climate conditions in 2009-2015 were fluctuating, but rice production from 2009 to 2015 increased from 350,116 to 382,161 tons. The changes of paddy field areas and climate parameters did not affect rice production (Rainfall: r = 0.32, P>0.05; Temperature: r = - 0.05, P>0.05; Humidity: r = 0.09, P>0.05, n = 7). However, paddy field conversion and climate condition changes must be addressed to optimize and sustain the rice production in Tegal Regency.