The effect of COVID-19 on the Egyptian exchange using principal component analysis

Abstract

Purpose Since the beginning of 2020, economies faced many changes as a result of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The effect of COVID-19 on the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) is investigated in this research. Design/methodology/approach To explore the impact of COVID-19, three periods were considered: (1) 17 months before the spread of COVID-19 and the start of the lockdown, (2) 17 months after the spread of COVID-19 and the during the lockdown and (3) 34 months comprehending the whole period (before and during COVID-19). Due to the large number of variables that could be considered, dimensionality reduction method, such as the principal component analysis (PCA) is followed. This method helps in determining the most individual stocks contributing to the main EGX index (EGX 30). The PCA, also, addresses the multicollinearity between the variables under investigation. Additionally, a principal component regression (PCR) model is developed to predict the future behavior of the EGX 30. Findings The results demonstrate that the first three principal components (PCs) could be considered to explain 89%, 85%, and 88% of data variability at (1) before COVID-19, (2) during COVID-19 and (3) the whole period, respectively. Furthermore, sectors of food and beverage, basic resources and real estate have not been affected by the COVID-19. The resulted Principal Component Regression (PCR) model performs very well. This could be concluded by comparing the observed values of EGX 30 with the predicted ones (R-squared estimated as 0.99). Originality/value To the best of our knowledge, no research has been conducted to investigate the effect of the COVID-19 on the EGX following an unsupervised machine learning method.