Time-Lagged Prediction of Food Craving With Qualitative Distinct Predictor Types: An Application of BISCWIT

Abstract

Food craving (FC) peaks are highly context-dependent and variable. Accurate prediction of FC might help preventing disadvantageous eating behavior. Here, we examine whether data from 2 weeks of ecological momentary assessment (EMA) questionnaires on stress and emotions (active EMA, aEMA) alongside temporal features and smartphone sensor data (passive EMA, pEMA) are able to predict FCs ~2.5 h into the future in N = 46 individuals. A logistic prediction approach with feature dimension reduction via Best Item Scale that is Cross-Validated, Weighted, Informative and Transparent (BISCWIT) was performed. While overall prediction accuracy was acceptable, passive sensing data alone was equally predictive to psychometric data. The frequency of which single predictors were considered for a model was rather balanced, indicating that aEMA and pEMA models were fully idiosyncratic.