A Comparative Study of COVID-19 Pandemic in Rajasthan, India

Abstract

The treatment of corona virus disease is not possible without any vaccine. However, spreading of the deadly virus can be controlled by various measures being imposed by Government like lockdown, quarantine, isolation, contact tracing, social distancing and putting face mask on mandatory basis. As per information from the Department of Medical Health and Family Welfare of Rajasthan on 19 September 2020, corona virus COVID-19 severely affected the state of Rajasthan, resulting in cumulative positive cases 113,124, cumulative recovered 93,805 and cumulative deaths 1322. Without any appropriate treatment, it may further spread globally as it is highly communicable and because potentially affecting the human body respiratory system, which could be fatal to mankind. Therefore, to reduce the spread of infection, authors are motivated to construct a predictive mathematical model with sustainable conditions as per the ongoing scenario in the state of Rajasthan. Mathematica software has been used for numerical evaluation and graphical representation for variation of infection, recovery, exposed, susceptibles and mortality versus time. Moreover, comparative analysis of results obtained by predictive mathematical model has been done with the exact data plotting by curve fitting as obtained from Rajasthan government website. As a part of analysis and result, it is noted that due to the variation of transmission rate from person to person corresponding rate of infection goes on increasing monthly and mortality rate found high as shown and discussed numerically. Further, we can predict that the situation will become worse in the winter months especially in month of December due to unavailability of proper vaccine. This model may become more efficient when the researchers, experts from medical sciences and technologist work together.