Incorporating barriers in scenarios for energy efficiency improvement and promoting renewable energy in the Bulgarian residential sector

Abstract

The progress in achieving targets for energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy sources (RES) is hindered by a set of barriers linked with the end-users (social, educational, cultural, economic, and institutional), but previously, the effect of these barriers was only rarely quantified and no comprehensive methodology to do so is available. This paper, through a step-by-step methodology, examines the development of scenarios for the Bulgarian residential sector until 2030, focusing on the combination of available – for this sector – EE and RES technologies, after incorporating these barriers with the use of the HERON Decision Support Tool (HERON-DST). Two more research tools are used, LEAP (modeling tool) and AMS (multi-criteria evaluation method). Six different scenarios, three of which address barriers, were developed for LEAP. All scenarios are evaluated with the AMS method against a set of criteria/sub-criteria regarding their overall performance under the particular national framework. This results in the identification of the most appropriate (EE/RES) scenario for the country, i.e., addresses behavioral barriers and performs better (one with the highest AMS score) than the others under the particular national framework. This scenario promotes building shell improvement, efficient heating, and cooling in the Bulgarian residential sector. Its policy mixture mainly through financial incentives and more demanding building codes handles social, institutional, and economic barriers linked with end-users behavior. Conclusions concern the methodology, its outcomes, and future use.