Effective Radiative Forcing and Climate Response to Short-Lived Climate Pollutants Under Different Scenarios

Abstract

We used an online aerosol-climate model (BCC_AGCM2.0_CUACE/Aero) to simulate effective radiative forcing and climate response to changes in the concentrations of short-lived climatic pollutants (SLCPs), including methane, tropospheric ozone, and black carbon, for the period 2010–2050 under Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs) 8.5, 4.5, and 2.6. Under these three scenarios, the global annual mean effective radiative forcing were 0.1, −0.3, and −0.5 W m−2, respectively. Under RCP 8.5, the change in SLCPs caused significant increases in surface air temperature (SAT) in middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and significant decreases in precipitation in the Indian Peninsula and equatorial Pacific. Global mean SAT and precipitation increased by 0.13 K and 0.02 mm d−1, respectively. The reduction in SLCPs from 2010 to 2050 under RCPs 4.5 and 2.6 led to significant decreases in SAT at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Precipitation increased slightly in most continental regions, and the Intertropical Convergence Zone moved southward under both of these mitigation scenarios. Global mean SAT decreased by 0.20 and 0.44 K, and global averaged precipitation decreased by 0.02 and 0.03 mm d−1 under RCPs 4.5 and 2.6, respectively.