Mathematical Modeling for Ecosystem-Based Management (EBM) and Ecosystem Goods and Services (EGS) Assessment

Abstract

There is a rich history in predicting ecological interactions in nature going back to the seminal work of Robert May. Historically, the use of models in ecological decision making has been centered on tools that require less data and are easier to communicate into policy. However, the explosion in the availability of ecological data, as well as the ready access to computer power, has opened the door to more detailed computation tools. This in turn has created a suite of questions about how and how much model-based projections can influence decision making in management of ecological resources. Here we address some of these issues particularly those created by model complexity, data quality and availability, and model acceptance by policy makers. Our goal is to use specific examples to critically examine these issues for both gaps and opportunities in how models can be used to inform decision making at the level of ecosystems and in the currency of ecosystem services to people.