Opportunistic Incidence Prediction of Multiple Chronic Diseases from Abdominal CT Imaging Using Multi-task Learning

Abstract

Opportunistic computed tomography (CT) analysis is a paradigm where CT scans that have already been acquired for routine clinical questions are reanalyzed for disease prognostication, typically aided by machine learning. While such techniques for opportunistic use of abdominal CT scans have been implemented for assessing the risk of a handful of individual disorders, their prognostic power in simultaneously assessing multiple chronic disorders has not yet been evaluated. In this retrospective study of 9,154 patients, we demonstrate that we can effectively assess 5-year incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD), diabetes mellitus (DM), hypertension (HT), ischemic heart disease (IHD), and osteoporosis (OST) using single already-acquired abdominal CT scans. We demonstrate that a shared multi-planar CT input, consisting of an axial CT slice occurring at the L3 vertebral level, as well as carefully selected sagittal and coronal slices, enables accurate future disease incidence prediction. Furthermore, we demonstrate that casting this shared CT input into a multi-task approach is particularly valuable in the low-label regime. With just 10% of labels for our diseases of interest, we recover nearly 99% of fully supervised AUROC performance, representing an improvement over single-task learning.