Development by trial and error: The authority of good enough numbers

Abstract

The quantification of problems that actors decide to understand and fix has become central to policy-making. However, this article suggests that critics of this move miss the point if their critique is limited to inadequate methods or inaccurate results. Dialoguing with recent literature on governance by numbers, the article argues that errors are not the issue. Taking development policy-making as an illustration, the article suggests that numbers in policy are increasingly imbued with a reasoning according to which it is only necessary to find "enough" correlation. By looking at "good enough data/methods/governance" in the World Bank and OECD in the context of the "fragile states" agenda, the aim is to show how imperfect methods and objects become authoritative while their imperfection is anything but hidden. As the pursuit of better numbers moves the wheel, the article suggests the need to learn more about authority and power in these dynamics by looking at how errors are a practical, accepted, and ubiquitous element in donors' practices.