Tourism Forecasting Using the Delphi Method and Implications for Sustainable Tourism Development

Abstract

Tourism forecasting is one of the most important aspects of tourism studies in today’s competitive environment. It is crucial not only for tourism businesses to understand and foresee trends and future changes, but also for government agencies to develop the competitiveness of their tourism sectors in order to stay competitive or even outperform other tourist destinations. The purpose of this research is to conduct tourism forecasting using the Delphi technique and to collect data from experts in the field of tourism and hospitality, providing useful information about the future of Thailand’s tourism directions and sustainable development. The results show that Thailand could maintain its tourism strengths in many aspects, including tourism attractions for tourists from various income groups, and the cultural uniqueness of “Thai-ness”. Thailand’s tourism capabilities can support the growing importance of tourism development in Southeast Asia. In addition, the research findings reveal some areas for improvement for Thai tourism to support sustainable tourism development, including the necessity for improving the quality of training programs for human resources in tourism-related organizations, a less strict immigration policy, the adoption of new information technology, and more updated tourism information. The discussion of findings and practical implications for sustainable tourism development are also discussed in detail.