Foresight of the surface technology in manufacturing

Abstract

This chapter of the book presents a forecast development of materials surface engineering over the nearest 20 years. The proposed methodological approach and the relevant selected results of the research carried out using neural networks and contextual matrices are presented. Contextual matrices were used for the graphical presentation of a strategic position of the critical materials surface engineering technologies. Critical technologies are such having best development prospects and/or key significance in industry. For the purpose of preparing forecasts and analyses, expert studies were carried out with the e-Delphix method using information technology. The probabilistic multivariant scenarios of future events concerning materials surface engineering were created based on the data acquired from experts according to the results of computer simulations made using artificial neural networks. The original data from the experts also served to perform further investigations into the importance of the new technologies, according to the new approach, and the correctness of such approach was verified by comparing the results of heuristic research with the results of classical materials science research for 35 diverse technology groups. The strategic positions of 140 critical materials surface engineering technologies were determined by acting in consistency with the new approach and using own software and custom conceptual matrices. Hidden expert knowledge was thus converted, using the analytical tools and quantitative methods dedicated to this task, into a publicly available open knowledge. The relevant technologies were described and characterized by harmonized criteria using roadmaps and technology information sheets. The new approach described in this chapter, supported with extended information technology, is suitable for direct applications in other areas of knowledge while maintaining economically reasonable costs.