Key financial indicators in the production cooperative sector of russia: Analysis and forecasts

Abstract

The paper analyzes financial conditions and development of the cooperative production sector of Russia. The empirical base is the financial statements of 1907 enterprises of the cooperative sector of Russia for 2014–2018. The methods of trend and correlation-regression analysis were used. A methodology for financial analysis and forecasting the development of the cooperative sector was developed and presented in the paper. The structure of the sector, cyclicality, and volatility of indicators are evaluated. The behavior of companies in the sector is analyzed in terms of operating, investment, and financial activities. The possibility of creating value by sector companies and the long-term growth rates of key indicators are analyzed. The methodology was tested on the data of sector enterprises. Indicators for the largest enterprises were separately calculated. The results show that the sector is non-cyclical, low concentrated. The most significant operators have a real economy of scale. The sector is heterogeneous, agricultural cooperatives dominate it. The operational efficiency of sector enterprises is declining, and investment and financial activity are low. The largest enterprises in the sector are characterized by higher operational efficiency and investment activity, they create value. Relying on the multivariate regression analysis, the author makes predictions regarding the financial results of enterprises in the sector, which are based on linear, logarithmic, and power-law trends. Also, the author forecasts operating expenses, identifying a moderate increase in revenue and a decrease in the profit of enterprises in the sector due to the pronounced positive economies of scale and increased intra-industry competition due to the monopolization of market infrastructure. The competitiveness of enterprises in the sector can be improved through government support for the formation of digital infrastructure.