The moderating role of institutions between FDI and GDP: evidence from China and India

Abstract

Several research efforts were dedicated to analysing the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on gross domestic product (GDP) and employment in the host economies. The variations in the conclusions signal that other variables influence and moderate the effects of FDI on GDP and employment. Institutional elements receive limited research attention, despite their influence on the host economies. This paper investigates the moderating role of institutional elements in the FDI-host economies on FDI’s effects on GDP and employment with China and India as case studies. The approach utilises three principal methodologies. The first methodology presents an in-depth analysis of China and India, highlighting selected institutional elements with the potential to influence FDI’s effects. The second methodology confirms the presence of a positive correlation between FDI and GDP and a negative correlation between FDI and employment-to-population ratio (EPR) in both China and India. The FDI, GDP purchasing power parity per capita, and EPR datasets are extracted from the World Bank–DataBank World Development Indicators to ensure the consistency of the data. The results of the quantitative analysis validate the qualitative analysis. The qualitative analysis confirms the moderating role of the selected institutional elements with variations in direction and strength. Significant variations in FDI’s effects on GDP and employment are strongly related to variations in the institutions of governance. The institutions of governance include the functionality of the state organs, the efficiency of the legal system and enforcement of the rule of law, and the quality of implementation of FDI-supportive policies. The findings aim to increase the absorption of the positive effects of FDI on GDP and employment in the respective countries. The research is a cornerstone of in-depth future research into the following areas: the role of selective FDI and constructive conditional FDI policies, the functionality of judicial authority controls, and FDI favourable exchange rates and interest rates policies. The novelty and contribution of the paper lie in its comprehensive exploration of the moderating role of institutional elements on the effects of FDI on GDP and employment in host economies, with a specific focus on China and India. The paper contributes significantly to the academic literature on FDI and economic development by emphasising the importance of institutional factors and providing actionable insights for policymakers and researchers.