The Importance of Political Factors in Reducing Conflict and Upholding Security

Abstract

Climate change is a threat multiplier that can, under a set of socio-economic and political conditions, destabilize the security of vulnerable communities. Building on the findings of the previous chapter (Chap. 3), Chap. 4 shows that political factors are determinant in the destabilization of security and escalation to violence. The stages of the causal pathway to conflict are modelled using prisms from the human, sustainable livelihoods and environmental security theory and with a focus on farmer-herder conflicts. This model highlights how different policies and institutional structures can influence the causal chain between environmental change and violence. With reference to the PEISOR model, the argument is advanced that political factors can play a fundamental role not only in provoking and fuelling but also in reducing climate-change-induced or -aggravated conflicts. A range of policy levers, from mitigation and adaptation to development and reform of institutional structures, can reduce conflict.