Making decisions in national energy markets with bifurcation analysis

Abstract

A mathematical model for international integration of national energy markets was proposed by references. Lowering the dimension conveniently to 3 dimensions using system dynamics methodology, the dynamical system obtained could present a commutation region proposing that the system is a piecewise smooth system PWS with local bifurcations: Saddle-node and transcritical bifurcations. The bifurcation diagram is interpreted as a map of all possible system prospective scenarios, in this sense, the making decisions over systems have leverage points in its bifurcation parameters. In the national energy markets case, the bifurcations parameters depend on the generation lifetime and the investments rate, then two trend scenarios were defined: the absolute disappearance of the national supply of electricity or convergency at an equilibrium value of the national supply with which it is possible to serve the market. It is concluded that any investment and small useful life of the generation plants is not enough for attending the national electricity demand in the medium and long term.