A Probabilistic View of Weather, Climate, and the Energy Industry

Abstract

Probability methods provide quantitative insight into the implications of atmospheric variability for the energy industry. Contemporary computer probability forecasts of climate anomalies for the weeks, months, or seasons ahead offer new precision in managing both risk and opportunity. The forecasts of two major international centers and a multi-model constructed from them by the World Climate Service demonstrate that the contemporary probability forecasts have sufficient skill and reliability to provide advantageous guidance for energy decisions. An analytical model of choices available in response to predicted anomalies illustrates how and when to act on forecasts. Atmospheric informatics is introduced as a system for creating, transferring, and applying atmospheric information in important endeavors. The aim is to show energy and other industry decision-makers what they need to know—now.