Effects of climate change on cultivation patterns and climate suitability of spring maize in Inner Mongolia

Abstract

Climate change has caused significant alterations in crop cultivation patterns and has affected crop suitability as well as its production. In this study, we investigated the changes in cultivation patterns and climate suitability of spring maize in Inner Mongolia from 1959 to 2018. We used the daily meteorological data from 50 weather stations and growth period data of spring maize from nine agrometeorological stations. In addition, the quantitative and interdecadal relationship between climate suitability of regions and climate-induced crop yield was analyzed using stepwise regression and cross wavelet transform. The results show that: (1) The planting boundaries of different spring maize maturity types extend to the north and east. In the middle part, early maturity maize has been replaced by medium maturity maize. The unsuitable planting areas in Northeast Inner Mongolia are decreasing, and the early maturity areas are increasing. (2) The climate suitability for spring maize planting areas is increasing. However, variations occur between different regions; the eastern region has the highest climate suitability (Sz = 0.67), but the overall trend is decreasing in this region. Whereas the central region has moderate suitability (Sz = 0.62), with a significantly increasing trend (p < 0.05). The western region is lower (Sz = 0.60) and the trend is not significant. (3) Climate suitability and climate-induced yields are generally positively correlated. The primary factors affecting climate-induced yields are sunshine hours, followed by climate suitability, rainfall, and temperature. The cross-wavelet transform shows that climate suitability and climate-induced yield have greater periodicity in the late growth period. Appropriate expansion of the planting range of medium-late maturity spring maize can fully adapt to the impact of climate warming. Therefore, it is necessary to study suitability trends of regions to adopt comprehensive maize production measures.