Staying in the cities or returning home? An analysis of the rural-urban migration behavior in Vietnam

Abstract

This paper investigates the migration behavior of rural-urban migrants within Vietnam. It focuses on the length and intensity of migration and its respective determinants. The analysis uses panel data of 2200 rural households and data from a migrant tracking survey of 299 migrants from Vietnam. The findings show that migrants coming from rural households that faced a higher number of idiosyncratic shocks increase their stays in the cities, while those from households that experienced covariate shocks such as floods, droughts, or economic shocks shorten the lengths of their stays in the cities. An increased length of migration is also observed among migrants and households with higher human capital. Furthermore, a decreased income gap between rural and urban provinces due to the higher economic growth in the cities increases the duration of migration. With respect to the migration intensity, migrants intend to return sooner when they face shocks in the cities and the living conditions at their original places improve. JEL Classification: D13, J28, J61, O15, O18, Z13