Modelling future sea-level change under greenhouse warming scenarios with an earth system model of intermediate complexity

Abstract

Recently, a lot of effort has been put into estimating possible near-future changes (say, 10- 100 years) in the Earth's abiotic system, especially changes induced by human activities. One of the most studied issues is the effect of greenhouse gases on global warming and the corresponding change in sea-level around the world due to the associated deglaciation. This study focuses at projections of global sea-level changes on geological time scales. The University of Victoria's (Canada) coupled Earth System Climate Model of intermediate complexity was implemented. Two different greenhouse- warming scenarios were studied on timescales from hundreds to thousands years. The model was used to predict sea level variations under the combined influence of changes in sea ice coverage, global precipitation and evaporation, seawater salinity and temperature. Long-term projections show unequal water mass distribution over the globe: a sea-level rise of order of decimetres in equatorial and mid-latitude regions and a sea-level fall of up to 2 metres in polar regions, mostly around Antarctica.