Modeling of toxic substances in the atmosphere - Risk analysis and emergency forecast

Abstract

The present paper describes the activities and results achieved in the development of a modelling system for operational response to accidental releases of harmful gases in the atmosphere. The main envisaged functions of the system are: 1 Perform highly accurate and reliable risk analysis and assessment for selected "hot spots"; 2 Provide the national authorities and the international community with operational short-term local-to regional scale forecast of the propagation of harmful gases; 3 Perform, in an off-line mode, a more detailed and comprehensive analysis of the possible longer-term impacts on the environment and human health. The system is based on the following models: WRF, used as meteorological pre-processor; SMOKE - the emission pre-processor; CMAQ - the Chemical Transport Model (CTM) of the system. For the needs of the emergency response preparedness mode the risk is defined as probability the national regulatory threshold values for toxic gases to be exceeded. Maps of the risk around potential sources of emergency toxic gas releases are constructed and demonstrated in the current paper. Some examples of the system "operational mode" results are demonstrated as well. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.